KNW-172
Conduct Threat – Needs Assessment
KJ5EMP FOR NW HARRIS COUNTY ARES
Revised 12/2021
In the Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment, every Ranger holds a strong commitment to knowing the entirety of the mission for the whole unit for the whole operation, but additionally being physically, mentally, and morally prepared for any number of contingencies that might be thrown at the Individual Ranger or larger element. In the worst of failure modes, any single Ranger will complete the higher strategic mission as the lone survivor. During mission rehearsals, exercises are held to determine what issues could happen and what mitigating tools would be needed. We will discuss this exercise in this training.
This is most easily accomplished using a spreadsheet on a computer. In the first column, create a new row for every failure you might encounter. This list should encompass risks such as being locked out of your house, lost phone, lost wallet, a flat tire, a fender bender, a major earthquake, an evacuation notice. Whatever risks pertain to your specific location, abilities, and desire to prepare for.
At some point, you will need to accept that perhaps while you could try to prepare for a major asteroid collision with earth, trying to die with dignity and honor is a more defendable position. This point needs to be reconciled and established at the bottom of the list. Once this risk register has been established, prioritize it by likelihood of it coming to fruition with the most likely rows at the top.
For the first risk row, add columns across the top for each tool that would resolve or mitigate the risk. Your columns would include your cell phone, your cell phone charger, an HT with the local repeaters programmed, a flashlight, an antihistamine, a case of MRE’s, a tourniquet, a couple hundred dollars cash…you get the idea. Individual columns for each tool. Add a numeric “1” in each cell where the risk row is helped or mitigated by the tool column.
Continue with every row, adding new columns for tools not previously identified, risks down the left, tools across the top, with a numeric 1 in each cell that intersects a risk and tool. When you have fully completed this matrix, sum each column, resulting in a cumulative number at the very bottom of each column indicating how high a priority each tool is to have available for the most risks. Reorder your columns so the most important tools are at the left, in descending order to the right. You will find items like your cell phone or other communication vectors will naturally float to the top left.
Discretion is needed in this exercise; an item like a tourniquet may not score highly but if you need a tourniquet, you really need a tourniquet. Adjust accordingly, you can weight your scoring by increasing the tool scoring for your individual situation. You may need to give spare insulin a few more points.
Add a new sheet to your spreadsheet, perform the exercise again, this time with your spouse, distant family, as many iterations as reasonable for your specific individual situation. You can also focus this exercise on a specific event, supply chain, or capability. Running this exercise on your ARES go kit, using radio equipment failures and troubleshooting during a specific event type as the catalyst will result in a better level of preparation with a better density of useful tools in your kit. It may point out specific deficiencies or single points of failure you would prioritize for correction.
This exercise rarely results in an identical output twice; as our abilities, fears, tools, and surroundings almost constantly change, so will the matrix. Plan for the unexpected.
That concludes tonight’s training. Are there any questions, comments or suggested additions to this material?
Thanks, this is (callsign) clear to net control.